Ukraine throughout its history has been part of many empires and rarely experienced freedom. In fact, during WW1 Ukrainians fought for both the Austro-Hungarian Empire that controlled western Ukraine, and the Imperial Russian Army that controlled the East. After WW1, Ukraine went through a period of anarchy until an independent Ukraine SSR was established for a very short time, but in 1921 its independent army was defeated by the Red Army under Trotsky and it was fully incorporated into the Russian controlled USSR. With the failure of communist five year plans under Lenin and then Stalin and aided by th worldwide depression, famine broke out in Eastern Europe. Stalin confiscated the Ukrainian harvest in 1932, withheld Ukraine's own food from Ukrainians and as a result 3.5 million Ukrainians died of starvation. Sixty years later, after the breakup of the USSR, the world finally officially recognized this as genocide.
In 2014, Putin's sensing the obvious weakness of the Obama-Biden regime seized the Crimean Peninsula. This violated the agreement from the early 1990s that called for Ukraine to give up its nuclear weapons for its freedom and independence from Russian control. The Obama regime sent the Ukrainians a few blankets rather than arms and little else, so there wasn't much the Ukrainians could do. In addition, Putin continued to fight a relatively small conflict in Eastern Ukraine, claiming ill treatment of ethnic Russians. In 1938, Hitler used a similar excuse to swallow up the Sudetenland from Czechoslovakia. A weak British government led by Neville Chamberlain supported this despite Czech opposition. We all know what happened next.
Sincec 1994, much of Eastern Europe has experienced a significant amount of freedom, that has allowed them to grow and prosper. Many have sought admittance to the EU and NATO, the later of which has grown from sixteen original members to currently thirty. Swedencand Finland, both who have not become NATO members are now considering joining. Ukraine, though wanting EU and NATO membership, has not been able to achieve these upgrades. Corruption has been the fake excuse given by the West and certainly corruption still exists, but some is from external sources such George Soros' Open Borders NGO and ironically and indirectly by the Biden family.
On January 20, 2021, Biden sealed Ukraine's fate. Only the Covid`19 pandemic has delayed what has followed. America, that had been energy independentt under President Trump and a net exporter of oil and LNG, became a nation dependent on oil from other countries, including Russia (500K barrels/day). Stupidity abounds in the Biden regime, even if one actually believes that global warming and climate change exist. Oil or natural gas doesn't created any carbon residuals while sitting in a pipeline, railroad tank car, tank truck, or maritime tanker. It only produces carbon residuals after it is burned. Therefore, their origin, be it Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Canada, or Texas doesn't really matter. Only stupidity by Biden and hatred of America by the left have harnessed American energy. Despite a number of sanctions, all of which I am certain that Putin knew would result, his main hope is that Biden will continue to resist reopening America's energy. In addition just last month Biden has shut down the completion of the East Med Pipeline sending natural gas to Greece, Italy, and the Balkans from Israel, Egypt, and Cyprus, continuing those areas dependence on Russia. Again he has listen to the global warming hoaxers, making those countries more dependent on Russian oil and natural gas.
So what is Putin's real goal? Certainly the mistreatment of ethnic Russians in Eastern Ukraine is a coverup. Many people in Ukraine and Russia have mixed roots. Russia is certainly not short of food, since the downfall of the Soviet Union, Putin and his fellow oligarchs are doing well economically. I don't think Putin could actually think that NATO is interested in attacking Russia, even if NATO countries now border on Russia. I doubt if an attack on Poland, or the Baltic countries would be desirable as it would trigger an Article 5 situation, calling for all for one and one for all of NATO. It certainly isn't wealth, as he is one of the wealthiest men in the world. So it has to be power. For megalomaniacs, there is never enough power and he has seen how weak America, under Joe Biden, is, so he wants to step into the void. This time its not wheat that he wants to seize, but natural gas. Ukraine has the fourth largest reserves of natural gas in the world. Combined with Russia, Putin could gain even more control of the price of natural gas for much of Europe and use it as a weapon to extort America and the West for other concessions.
The question now is, has Putin biten off more that he can chew? I'm certain that he did not expect the tenacity and resolve of the Ukrainian people. He expected to be in Kyiv in 2 days with minimal losses of men and material and elimination of the current government. This has not happened and now i think he is looking for a way out, hoping that a truce can be worked out by a broker that would favor him in negotiations. ( I wish Biden would try to protect our borders as aggressively as Ukrainian President Zelenskyy). Meanwhile, even if Putin ultimately achieves some sort of a victory claim, the Russian people and more importantly the Russian oligarchs, may see through this and he may be forced to resign, though Putin has been ruthless enough to murder his opposition. The denial of access to SWIFT, the international banking system, to certain Russian banks has already caused a run on ATMs throughout Russia and the Russia Ruble has been in freefall.
A negotiator that might be acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine could be Donald Trump. I doubt if Biden would agree, as a Trump success would be politically undesirable to Biden. So what's Biden's end game. Naturally he wants Putin to abandon his invasion and pull back. With midterm elections now 8 months away, he needs something to go right. Despite Nancy Pelosi extolling his brilliance, Biden continues to be seen as weak and incompetent. Vice President Harris, who went to Germany for NATO talks, continues to fail. A Biden failure in Ukraine may give China the go ahead to invade Taiwan.
Meanwhile Zelenskyy, probably with the urging of Biden, has agreed to talk with Putin in Belarus, a country on Ukraine's northern border that served as a staging area for the invasion and run by Putin's stooge, Alexander Lukashenko. Belarus experienced massive peaceful demonstrations last summer, its citizens objecting to what they perceived as another rigged presidential election. Putin will have to gain something in order to save face. He would never go back to the preinvasion status. Would Ukraine's promise not to join NATO or the EU be enough or would ceding the contested lands in Eastern Ukraine be acceptable. I doubt if Putin would agree to a plebiscite, as it certainly might not go his way. Zelenskyy has shown to be a brave and inspirational leader, who has not only solidified his country, but also NATO and most of the free world who support him. We hope and pray that this war ends immediately and Ukraine retains its freedom and independence.
Doctor Democracy is considering starting a vlog or podcast as issues are happening today at such a rapid pace that it is hard to keep up. I need to determine whether I have the technical skills and what equipment is necessary. The plan is to continue using the podcasts for political discussion, but occasionally include other topics including hard rock and heavy metal music and concerts, medical subjects, and even style and fashion as I have a guest expert on the later. If successful I may have a sponsor to enhance the podcasts. Please comment on whether you think this is worthwhile.
No comments:
Post a Comment