There are 17 people running for the Republican nomination, but only half deserve to have their names even mentioned so that is exactly what I will do.
Obviously the most intriguing candidate thus far is Donald Trump. The outspoken billionaire seems to have garnered the most support, more than double any other candidate so for. Despite his brashness and sometimes outrageous remarks, his poll number continue to rise or remain steady. Originally claiming how wealthy he is, Trump said he would not accept contributions, but has now said he will accept $100 or less contributions from general public and not from lobbyists. Because of his popularity, Trump has become the talk of every news channel and his willingness to give interviews to just about anybody has made him a daily fixture on your favorite news station and that amounts to free advertising. Obviously his brashness and ignoring political correctness is what seems to make him popular with the public. In the long run, this early lead and all the free air time may actually hurt Trump's campaign. So far his campaign has been run on the cheap with little effort to set up professionally run campaign offices both locally and nationally. Getting people out to vote in a primary is important especially on a freezing or rainy day. Organizations can provide transportation and encouragement. Trump needs to rapidly build an organization and hire quality advisors who can help him with the issues for which he is least familiar. He can still make brash and outrageous statements as long as he can support them with facts and or details. Pledging loyalty to the party would also help him. Speaking of loyalty, Republicans need to be reminded that the unwillingness of some Republicans to vote in 2008 and 2012 gave us an inept, anti America, and criminal regime. Hillary Clinton, if she can overcome criminal charges that have racked her campaign, would bring more of the same incompetence and arrogance.
Surprisingly two other non political outsiders are doing very well, Benjamin Carson MD, and Carly Florin. In some polls they and the other outsider Trump have accumulated 40-50% of Republican support. Carson has been soft spoken but methodical in his approach and has challenged Obama more than other Republicans. Obviously a very intelligent and well educated man, a leader in his profession, has kept him in the top five in most recent polls and in second place in many. His biggest problem is and will be for now fund raising, which is unfortunately necessary to run an effective campaign. Likewise Fiorino has the same problem, though she proved to be the first Republican debate winner and she wasn't even in the prime time debate. Well spoken and knowledgeable on the issues has helped. As the only woman on the Republican side, people would love to see her and Hillary debate. but that is not going to happen unless the two become the vice presidential choice of their parties. Outsiders have done well, because many American are tired of the old loosing approach to winning a presidential election. Both McCain and Romney refused to effectively criticize Obama and more importantly inform America of his ties to communists, islamists, and anti Americans. Fearing the racist charge, they were unwilling to effective speak up and challenge a man whose main agenda was to degrade and ultimately destroy America. If the Republican Party leadership can't see that then they don't deserve to win.
Jeb Bush seems to lead the establishment candidates, primarily because of name recognition and his massive lead in fund raising. He was a very successful governor of Florida and has access to the political king makers in the Republican Party. Although he tends to speak well, his soporific approach draws little excitement. He does have the organization that Trump lacks and has the wherewithal to last until the end of the primary season. He has been at odds with the Republican base, especially over common core, immigration, and Iran.
Cruz, Rubio, Huckabee, Walker, Paul, and Kasich seem to have about the same amount of support. Cruz seems to be the most intelligent, but lacks support from the party bigwigs. Rubio comes off as clear, concise and sensible, He is the youngest in the group and that may work against him. He has VP written all over him. Huckabee trends to push the social issues too much. This always works against the Republicans and if he wants to continue to grow followers, he needs to stress the economy and defense. Scott Walker has beaten the unions three times and helped his state of Wisconsin. He needs to show how his pragmatic approach at the state level will play out nationally. Paul seems to have lost support recently, I believe because he tends to come off as kind of winey and combative, He is in danger of being left behind. John Kasich is a very interesting candidate who has been successful everywhere he has served. He needs to spend more time getting his message out, but he may not have the money to spend. He is another candidate who has VP written all over him.
The rest aren't worth me writing about or you reading about. Im not sure why they are even running. In my next blog I will discuss the strategy that Republicans ought to adopt to succeed.
Sunday, August 30, 2015
Tuesday, August 18, 2015
The Run for the Presidency 2016 Part 1: The Democrats
The race for the presidency in 2016 is more like a marathon than a sprint. Often a candidate will lead the field early only to fade later and then improve again. An analysis this early is merely a snapshot of the status at this particular time with an educated guess at what the future will bring. It is far more fun to evaluate the Democrats, so lets do them first.
The overall leader at this time is Hillary Clinton, mostly by name recognition and that she is a woman. Her qualifications that were dubious in 2008 are even more dubious today. For most of her life any of her so called accomplishments have been because of her husband. Even as a US Senator it is obvious that she was elected only because she was married to Bill and not for anything else that may have deemed her worthy. In fact, she has been ineffectual at just about everything. As a partner at Rose Law, she only got a job because her husband was the governor. She couldn't even keep track of here billing records. As a first lady, her healthcare plan was fortunately rejected and her coming under fire in Kosovo turned out to be a lie as was the "vast right wing" conspiracy, a ridiculous notion that she continues to use today. She was ineffectual as a senator merely biding time until she could run for the presidency and so poor a campaigner that she allowed a communist community organizer with vertically no worthwhile life's experiences or accomplishment to beat her to the nomination. With Obama out of the way you would have thought that she was ready to be crowned, but as it turns out her actions as an ineffective and disastrous Secretary of State are being made public and now she is the subject of an FBI criminal investigation over her illegally using a vulnerable private server for her State Department e-mails and then not turning them over when she left office. It is difficult to determine what will become of this, but Bill played golf with Obama last weekend and I'm certain that this was discussed. Is the fix in? It all depends on what Hillary has on Obama and what Obama has on Hillary. It is very doubtful that calls for a special prosecutor will be answered. Obama despite numerous scandals has never been willing to unleash a special prosecutor as he uses the Justice Department as his political enforcement wing and is afraid what a special prosecutor may uncover. Hillary is a very poor campaigner and her support is currently waning. People find her aloof, untrustworthy, and secretive. This is not without its advantages, as every time she tries to answer questions from an objective reporter, she stumbles. Her relationship with the Clinton Foundation as Secretary of State has also been called into question, but is taking a backseat to the server scandal. Despite still being the front runner, an admitted socialist is closing fast and ahead in two of the three earliest primary states. Obama holds the key to her future.
The person closing in on Hillary is Bernie Sanders a 72 year old senator from Vermont who is an admitted socialist and listed as an independent in the Senate, but caucuses with the Democrats. He has been drawing huge crowds memorized by his political spiel attacking the rich and promising free stuff. Nothing new here and as with the Pied Piper his supporters are more then willing to follow him into government dependency and servitude. The only real stumble he has made was when he permitted some young angry black women from Black Lives Matter to seize his microphone as he retreated from the dais.
Martin O'Malley, another candidate who surrendered to Black Lives Matter, and Lincoln Chaffee have garnered little support and are pretty much a joke. Enough said. Jim Webb has also drawn little interest. Webb, a military veteran and former US Senator from Virginia, is a traditional Democrat, more in line with Jack Kennedy and Hubert Humphrey. That he has received so little support, shows how far the Democrat Party has gone from left of center to far far left.
Thus far Joe Biden, John Kerry, and Elizabeth Warren are waiting in the wings to see how far Hillary may stumble and even be forced to drop out. A lone debate is scheduled for October and I think they will make their decisions afterward. Don't count Obama out either, using Michelle for a shot at a third and even a forth term.
The overall leader at this time is Hillary Clinton, mostly by name recognition and that she is a woman. Her qualifications that were dubious in 2008 are even more dubious today. For most of her life any of her so called accomplishments have been because of her husband. Even as a US Senator it is obvious that she was elected only because she was married to Bill and not for anything else that may have deemed her worthy. In fact, she has been ineffectual at just about everything. As a partner at Rose Law, she only got a job because her husband was the governor. She couldn't even keep track of here billing records. As a first lady, her healthcare plan was fortunately rejected and her coming under fire in Kosovo turned out to be a lie as was the "vast right wing" conspiracy, a ridiculous notion that she continues to use today. She was ineffectual as a senator merely biding time until she could run for the presidency and so poor a campaigner that she allowed a communist community organizer with vertically no worthwhile life's experiences or accomplishment to beat her to the nomination. With Obama out of the way you would have thought that she was ready to be crowned, but as it turns out her actions as an ineffective and disastrous Secretary of State are being made public and now she is the subject of an FBI criminal investigation over her illegally using a vulnerable private server for her State Department e-mails and then not turning them over when she left office. It is difficult to determine what will become of this, but Bill played golf with Obama last weekend and I'm certain that this was discussed. Is the fix in? It all depends on what Hillary has on Obama and what Obama has on Hillary. It is very doubtful that calls for a special prosecutor will be answered. Obama despite numerous scandals has never been willing to unleash a special prosecutor as he uses the Justice Department as his political enforcement wing and is afraid what a special prosecutor may uncover. Hillary is a very poor campaigner and her support is currently waning. People find her aloof, untrustworthy, and secretive. This is not without its advantages, as every time she tries to answer questions from an objective reporter, she stumbles. Her relationship with the Clinton Foundation as Secretary of State has also been called into question, but is taking a backseat to the server scandal. Despite still being the front runner, an admitted socialist is closing fast and ahead in two of the three earliest primary states. Obama holds the key to her future.
The person closing in on Hillary is Bernie Sanders a 72 year old senator from Vermont who is an admitted socialist and listed as an independent in the Senate, but caucuses with the Democrats. He has been drawing huge crowds memorized by his political spiel attacking the rich and promising free stuff. Nothing new here and as with the Pied Piper his supporters are more then willing to follow him into government dependency and servitude. The only real stumble he has made was when he permitted some young angry black women from Black Lives Matter to seize his microphone as he retreated from the dais.
Martin O'Malley, another candidate who surrendered to Black Lives Matter, and Lincoln Chaffee have garnered little support and are pretty much a joke. Enough said. Jim Webb has also drawn little interest. Webb, a military veteran and former US Senator from Virginia, is a traditional Democrat, more in line with Jack Kennedy and Hubert Humphrey. That he has received so little support, shows how far the Democrat Party has gone from left of center to far far left.
Thus far Joe Biden, John Kerry, and Elizabeth Warren are waiting in the wings to see how far Hillary may stumble and even be forced to drop out. A lone debate is scheduled for October and I think they will make their decisions afterward. Don't count Obama out either, using Michelle for a shot at a third and even a forth term.
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