The race for the presidency in 2016 is more like a marathon than a sprint. Often a candidate will lead the field early only to fade later and then improve again. An analysis this early is merely a snapshot of the status at this particular time with an educated guess at what the future will bring. It is far more fun to evaluate the Democrats, so lets do them first.
The overall leader at this time is Hillary Clinton, mostly by name recognition and that she is a woman. Her qualifications that were dubious in 2008 are even more dubious today. For most of her life any of her so called accomplishments have been because of her husband. Even as a US Senator it is obvious that she was elected only because she was married to Bill and not for anything else that may have deemed her worthy. In fact, she has been ineffectual at just about everything. As a partner at Rose Law, she only got a job because her husband was the governor. She couldn't even keep track of here billing records. As a first lady, her healthcare plan was fortunately rejected and her coming under fire in Kosovo turned out to be a lie as was the "vast right wing" conspiracy, a ridiculous notion that she continues to use today. She was ineffectual as a senator merely biding time until she could run for the presidency and so poor a campaigner that she allowed a communist community organizer with vertically no worthwhile life's experiences or accomplishment to beat her to the nomination. With Obama out of the way you would have thought that she was ready to be crowned, but as it turns out her actions as an ineffective and disastrous Secretary of State are being made public and now she is the subject of an FBI criminal investigation over her illegally using a vulnerable private server for her State Department e-mails and then not turning them over when she left office. It is difficult to determine what will become of this, but Bill played golf with Obama last weekend and I'm certain that this was discussed. Is the fix in? It all depends on what Hillary has on Obama and what Obama has on Hillary. It is very doubtful that calls for a special prosecutor will be answered. Obama despite numerous scandals has never been willing to unleash a special prosecutor as he uses the Justice Department as his political enforcement wing and is afraid what a special prosecutor may uncover. Hillary is a very poor campaigner and her support is currently waning. People find her aloof, untrustworthy, and secretive. This is not without its advantages, as every time she tries to answer questions from an objective reporter, she stumbles. Her relationship with the Clinton Foundation as Secretary of State has also been called into question, but is taking a backseat to the server scandal. Despite still being the front runner, an admitted socialist is closing fast and ahead in two of the three earliest primary states. Obama holds the key to her future.
The person closing in on Hillary is Bernie Sanders a 72 year old senator from Vermont who is an admitted socialist and listed as an independent in the Senate, but caucuses with the Democrats. He has been drawing huge crowds memorized by his political spiel attacking the rich and promising free stuff. Nothing new here and as with the Pied Piper his supporters are more then willing to follow him into government dependency and servitude. The only real stumble he has made was when he permitted some young angry black women from Black Lives Matter to seize his microphone as he retreated from the dais.
Martin O'Malley, another candidate who surrendered to Black Lives Matter, and Lincoln Chaffee have garnered little support and are pretty much a joke. Enough said. Jim Webb has also drawn little interest. Webb, a military veteran and former US Senator from Virginia, is a traditional Democrat, more in line with Jack Kennedy and Hubert Humphrey. That he has received so little support, shows how far the Democrat Party has gone from left of center to far far left.
Thus far Joe Biden, John Kerry, and Elizabeth Warren are waiting in the wings to see how far Hillary may stumble and even be forced to drop out. A lone debate is scheduled for October and I think they will make their decisions afterward. Don't count Obama out either, using Michelle for a shot at a third and even a forth term.
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