As Dr, Democracy, I always perform extensive research in the writing and publication of my blog and continue to monitor future developments, In March, 2022, I published a blog, Peak Lithium. The blog based on the now defunct concept of 'peak oil," stated that lithium was in limited supply and would possibly peak and then run out in the 2030s, so the internal combustion engine will continue to be necessary and dominate use for motorized vehicles. But after continuing my research (and with help from one of my followers) on this topic, I have discovered that there is a source of lithium in the magnitude of gigatons that is available from the oceans. Apparently lithium is one of numerous minerals that is present in seawater and might be extracted for industrial use. Though present in only a few parts per million in sea water, the size of the oceans is so vast, that it should never run out.
Development of techniques are currently underway and a very promising technique has been developed at King Abdullah University of Science and Technology in Saudi Arabia (the KAUST Group). It is not clear that this technique can be applied for collection of lithium on an industrial scale and that facilities can be constructed at a reasonable cost and size to produce lithium in quantity at a reasonable price, but it does show that the potential is clearly there. If this process is available at a reasonable cost and that significant amounts of lithium can be extracted, it could even potentially reduce the cost of lithium batteries and EVs making them affordable and make the recycling of lithium batteries that require large amounts of energy and cost to recover, no longer necessary.
There is at least one or two negatives. The KLAUST Group, like most academic institutions, patents its discoveries and licensing it to various companies throughout the world could be expensive, if even available for the time being. In addition, plantt construction and cost of other infrastruction and the chemicals necessary to make this process work may be expensive or limited as well. Finally the main scientists responsible for this work are Chinese and have been honored by the Communist Chinese government for other work done at the KAUST Group. The Chinese currently control most of the world's lithium mining, as they control strip mining in Ausrtalia and extraction from swamp marshes in Chile, two of the largest sources. They could wind up controlling access to the patents and thus continue to control the materials necessary for EV batterie as well as the prices. Though the Chinese ordinarily don't pay attention to patents, as they steal technology from all over the world, I doubt whether they would use the technique without paying for licensing of the patents as the backlash in Saudi Arabia would not be worth it. Chinese scientists in Saudi Arabia would be immediately expelled and Chinese influenc in the Middle Easte significantly reduced. Lastly, would extraction of quantities of the ocean's lithium affect the sustainability of certain sea animals and plants? Nowadays, that will have to be considered. Could it be possible to dump batteries back in the ocean and let the oceans reclaim the lithium over time?
To summarize, an almost unlimited source of lithium for EV batteries may be available and several techniques have been developed to extract it for commercial use. That these techniques for extraction in necessary amounts at a reasonable cost has not been stated at this time. Furthermore, it is possible that China will have a monopoly on this source. Lastly will this impact the environment? I will continue to monitor this work and update when these questions can be answered.
